How much oil does Iraq produce in 2026?

Iraq produces approximately 4.2–4.4 million barrels per day (mb/d) of crude oil in 2026, making it OPEC's second-largest producer after Saudi Arabia. Major producing fields: Rumaila (BP/CNPC, ~1.4 mb/d), West Qurna 2 (Lukoil, ~0.8 mb/d), West Qurna 1 (ExxonMobil/PetroChina, ~0.5 mb/d), Majnoon (Shell previously; now Basra Oil Company, ~0.3 mb/d), and Kirkuk (North Oil Company, ~0.3–0.4 mb/d). Southern Basra fields dominate production. Iraq's OPEC+ quota in 2026 is approximately 4.0–4.2 mb/d; Iraq frequently exceeds its quota, creating tensions within OPEC+.

Why does Iraq frequently exceed its OPEC+ production quota?

Iraq consistently produces above its OPEC+ quota for several structural reasons: (1) Fiscal necessity — Iraq's fiscal breakeven is approximately $90–100/bbl; at lower oil prices, maximising volume is preferable to quota compliance to maintain government revenues; (2) Political economy — Iraq's government has spending commitments (public sector wages, subsidies, reconstruction) that require maximum oil revenue; reducing production means budget cuts and political backlash; (3) IOC contract structure — Iraq's major fields are operated under service contracts with IOCs (BP at Rumaila, Lukoil at WQ2) who are paid a fixed dollar fee per barrel; their commercial incentive is maximum production regardless of OPEC+ quotas; (4) Kurdistan Region — Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) production is separately contested and not always included consistently in Iraq's OPEC+ accounting; (5) Measurement uncertainty — field-level metering discrepancies mean actual output is sometimes genuinely uncertain.

What is the Kurdistan Region oil dispute?

The Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) has operated semi-independent oil production and export since ~2013, when it began direct exports via pipeline to Turkey's Ceyhan terminal — bypassing the Iraqi federal government's State Oil Marketing Organisation (SOMO). The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) signed Production Sharing Agreements directly with IOCs (including Genel Energy, DNO, HKN Energy) without Baghdad's approval. Iraq's federal government viewed this as unconstitutional. In March 2023, the Iraq–Turkey pipeline was halted by an arbitration ruling ordering Turkey to pay Iraq $1.5bn for facilitating KRG independent exports. The pipeline remained mostly shut through 2024–2025, costing the KRG ~400,000–450,000 b/d of export capacity and creating a severe fiscal crisis in Erbil. As of 2026, negotiations over resuming exports under a revenue-sharing agreement continue, with the dispute unresolved.

Iraq Oil Production 2026

Published 1 October 2026 · Updated 22 October 2026

Iraq is OPEC's second-largest oil producer at approximately 4.2–4.4 mb/d — and one of its most persistent quota violators. The country's fiscal dependency on oil revenues (~90% of government income), combined with IOC service contracts incentivising maximum output, creates structural pressure to produce above OPEC+ quotas regardless of alliance commitments. In 2026, Iraq continues to navigate the tension between OPEC+ membership obligations and domestic fiscal imperatives.

For OPEC+ context, see our OPEC+ glossary entry. For Iraq's fiscal breakeven, see our fiscal breakeven glossary entry. For IOC contract structures, see our production sharing agreement glossary. For crude oil pricing, see our Brent crude glossary entry.

Major fields and IOC contracts

Field	Location	Operator(s)	Output (2026 approx.)
Rumaila	Basra, south	BP (38.75%) + CNPC (36.75%) + Basra Oil Co.	~1.3–1.4 mb/d
West Qurna 2	Basra, south	Lukoil (75%) + Basra Oil Co.	~0.7–0.8 mb/d
West Qurna 1	Basra, south	ExxonMobil (32.7%) + PetroChina (25%) + QatarEnergy + Basra Oil Co.	~0.5 mb/d
Majnoon	Basra, south	Basra Oil Company (state-operated)	~0.25–0.30 mb/d
Zubair	Basra, south	ENI (32.8%) + Occidental + Kogas + Missan Oil Co.	~0.35–0.40 mb/d
Halfaya	Missan, south	TotalEnergies (22.5%) + CNPC + Petronas + Missan Oil Co.	~0.20–0.25 mb/d
Kirkuk	North	North Oil Company (state)	~0.30–0.35 mb/d

Iraq's major southern fields use service contracts (not PSAs) — IOCs receive a fixed fee per barrel (typically $1.50–5.00/bbl) rather than equity oil. This structure gives the Iraqi state maximum revenue control but means IOC commercial incentive is pure volume maximisation, not price optimisation.

OPEC+ quota compliance challenges

Iraq's pattern of quota non-compliance is one of OPEC+'s most persistent internal tensions:

Iraq's nominal OPEC+ quota in 2026: approximately 4.0–4.2 mb/d (after voluntary cut adjustments)
Actual production: approximately 4.2–4.4 mb/d — consistently 150,000–300,000 b/d above quota
Compensatory cuts: OPEC+ introduced a "compensation mechanism" requiring over-producers to submit plans to cut in future months to compensate for past overproduction; Iraq has submitted such plans but implementation has been inconsistent
Diplomatic cost: Saudi Arabia has repeatedly expressed frustration with Iraqi non-compliance; it is one of the key fault lines in OPEC+ cohesion

For the broader OPEC+ strategy context, see our OPEC Seminar 2027 preview and OPEC+ 2027 outlook.

Kurdistan Region oil dispute

The Kurdistan Region oil dispute has significantly affected both Iraqi production accounting and KRG fiscal stability:

March 2023: ICC arbitration ordered Turkey to pay Iraq $1.5bn for facilitating KRG independent exports via Ceyhan without Baghdad's consent
The Iraq–Turkey pipeline (capacity ~450,000 b/d) was shut in response; as of 2026, limited volumes have resumed via negotiated interim arrangements
KRG's fiscal position: approximately 90% of KRG budget revenues came from oil exports; the pipeline shutdown created a severe financial crisis in Erbil, requiring Baghdad budget transfers that the KRG disputes
Remaining IOC presence: several smaller E&P companies (Genel Energy, DNO, Gulf Keystone) continue operating KRI fields at reduced rates pending export route resolution

Iraq's fiscal pressure and oil dependence

Iraq's fiscal breakeven (~$90–100/bbl Brent) reflects one of the most oil-dependent government budgets in OPEC:

Oil revenues: ~90% of federal government revenue
Non-oil GDP: services, agriculture, some manufacturing — but minimal private sector development
Public sector employment: ~4+ million government employees and pensioners dependent on oil-funded state budget
Energy transition risk: Iraq has no significant SWF buffer and limited economic diversification — one of the most vulnerable OPEC members to a long-term demand decline scenario

For Iraq's fuel subsidy context, see our fuel subsidy glossary entry. For a comparison with Qatar's stronger fiscal position, see our Qatar fuel prices 2026.

Iraq's TotalEnergies Iraq deal: oil for investment
In 2021–2022, Iraq signed a major framework deal with TotalEnergies worth approximately $27bn, covering: (1) development of the Artawi oil field; (2) a 1 GW solar power project; (3) seawater injection at southern fields to maintain reservoir pressure; (4) gas capture at southern flares (Iraq flares approximately 1.5–2.0 bcm/year of associated gas — a significant waste and environmental problem). The deal ties oil revenue to infrastructure investment and gas capture — addressing Iraq's energy paradox where the country is an OPEC producer yet experiences domestic power shortages due to gas flaring and grid infrastructure gaps. Progress on implementation has been slow due to bureaucratic and political challenges. See our global refining outlook 2027 for broader Middle East refining context.

Frequently asked questions

How much oil does Iraq produce in 2026? Iraq produces approximately 4.2–4.4 mb/d in 2026 — OPEC's second largest after Saudi Arabia. Major fields: Rumaila (~1.3–1.4 mb/d, BP/CNPC), West Qurna 2 (~0.7–0.8 mb/d, Lukoil), West Qurna 1 (~0.5 mb/d, ExxonMobil/PetroChina), and several southern Basra fields. Iraq consistently produces ~150,000–300,000 b/d above its OPEC+ quota.: Iraq produces approximately 4.2–4.4 mb/d in 2026 — OPEC's second largest after Saudi Arabia. Major fields: Rumaila (~1.3–1.4 mb/d, BP/CNPC), West Qurna 2 (~0.7–0.8 mb/d, Lukoil), West Qurna 1 (~0.5 mb/d, ExxonMobil/PetroChina), and several southern Basra fields. Iraq consistently produces ~150,000–300,000 b/d above its OPEC+ quota.
Why does Iraq frequently exceed its OPEC+ production quota? Iraq's fiscal breakeven (~$90–100/bbl) requires maximum revenue; cutting production means budget deficits. IOC service contracts (BP, Lukoil, ExxonMobil) pay IOCs per barrel — creating pure volume incentive. Kurdistan production accounting is inconsistent. The government's public sector payroll (~4M+ employees/pensioners) makes cuts politically impossible. Compensatory cut plans are submitted but inconsistently implemented.: Iraq's fiscal breakeven (~$90–100/bbl) requires maximum revenue; cutting production means budget deficits. IOC service contracts (BP, Lukoil, ExxonMobil) pay IOCs per barrel — creating pure volume incentive. Kurdistan production accounting is inconsistent. The government's public sector payroll (~4M+ employees/pensioners) makes cuts politically impossible. Compensatory cut plans are submitted but inconsistently implemented.
What is the Kurdistan Region oil dispute? The KRG exported oil independently via the Iraq–Turkey pipeline to Ceyhan without Baghdad's consent. A March 2023 ICC ruling ordered Turkey to pay Iraq $1.5bn; the pipeline was shut. ~450,000 b/d of KRG export capacity was lost, creating a severe KRG fiscal crisis. As of 2026, limited interim volumes resume; the underlying dispute over revenue sharing and constitutional authority remains unresolved.: The KRG exported oil independently via the Iraq–Turkey pipeline to Ceyhan without Baghdad's consent. A March 2023 ICC ruling ordered Turkey to pay Iraq $1.5bn; the pipeline was shut. ~450,000 b/d of KRG export capacity was lost, creating a severe KRG fiscal crisis. As of 2026, limited interim volumes resume; the underlying dispute over revenue sharing and constitutional authority remains unresolved.