What is OPEC+ and how does it affect oil prices?

OPEC+ is an alliance of the 13 original OPEC member countries plus 10 non-OPEC producing nations, most notably Russia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Mexico. Together, OPEC+ produces approximately 40–45% of global crude oil and holds approximately 80% of the world's proven oil reserves. The alliance coordinates production quotas to manage supply and support crude oil prices. When OPEC+ cuts production, it reduces supply available to global markets, typically pushing Brent crude prices higher. When it increases production, prices tend to soften. OPEC+ production decisions directly affect petrol and diesel pump prices through their impact on crude oil costs.

What is OPEC+ spare capacity?

OPEC+ spare capacity is the volume of oil production that OPEC+ members could bring online within 30–90 days while sustaining output for 90+ days. In 2026, Saudi Arabia holds approximately 2.5–3 mb/d of spare capacity — the world's largest spare capacity buffer. UAE holds approximately 0.5–0.8 mb/d. Total OPEC+ spare capacity is approximately 4–5 mb/d. Spare capacity acts as a price moderating mechanism: when prices rise too high due to supply disruptions, Saudi Arabia and UAE can increase output to cap the price spike. High spare capacity therefore limits the upside for crude oil price spikes.

How will OPEC+ production decisions affect fuel prices in 2027?

OPEC+ production strategy for 2027 involves gradually unwinding voluntary production cuts taken since 2022–2023, adding approximately 180,000 barrels/day per month from late 2026 through 2027. If this unwinding proceeds as planned, it adds approximately 1.5–2 mb/d of supply to markets over 2026–2027. Combined with non-OPEC growth (US shale, Brazil, Guyana, Canada), total non-OPEC supply growth is projected at approximately 1.5 mb/d in 2027. If demand growth (IEA projects approximately 1.0–1.2 mb/d global demand growth in 2027) is lower than supply growth, the market moves into surplus — putting downward pressure on Brent crude prices and, with a 1–2 week lag, on petrol and diesel pump prices.

OPEC+ 2027 Outlook: Production Strategy, Spare Capacity & Oil Price Implications

Published 1 October 2026 · Updated 19 October 2026

OPEC+'s production strategy for 2027 will be one of the defining variables for global crude oil prices — and therefore petrol and diesel pump prices worldwide. The alliance entered 2026 managing approximately 3.7 mb/d of voluntary production cuts relative to its stated quotas, accumulated through a series of decisions from 2022 onwards as demand uncertainty and non-OPEC supply growth complicated the balancing act. How OPEC+ unwinds these cuts — and how fast non-OPEC supply grows to absorb them — is the central question for oil markets heading into 2027.

For related analysis, see our petrol price forecast 2027, OPEC+ production strategy 2026, and our OPEC glossary entry. For crude oil context, see our crude oil glossary entry.

OPEC+ alliance composition and production

Member group	Key members	Approx. production (mb/d, 2026)	Share of world supply
OPEC core (Gulf)	Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, Iran	~22	~22%
OPEC non-Gulf	Nigeria, Libya, Algeria, Venezuela, Gabon, Congo, Equatorial Guinea	~7	~7%
Non-OPEC allies	Russia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Mexico, Oman, Bahrain, Malaysia	~14	~14%
Total OPEC+		~43	~43%

OPEC+ spare capacity: the key market buffer

Spare capacity — the ability to increase production quickly and sustain it — is the critical variable that determines how much OPEC+ can moderate price spikes:

Saudi Arabia: ~2.5–3.0 mb/d spare capacity; maximum sustainable production ~12.5–13 mb/d; currently producing ~9–9.5 mb/d
UAE: ~0.5–0.8 mb/d spare capacity; ADNOC's 5 mb/d production capacity target partially achieved
Iraq: ~0.3–0.5 mb/d potential additional production, constrained by infrastructure
Other OPEC+: Minimal — Russia, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria are operating near capacity or below due to sanctions/infrastructure constraints
Total OPEC+ spare capacity: approximately 4–5 mb/d — the highest since 2020–2021 COVID-era cuts

High spare capacity acts as a ceiling on crude oil prices: if Brent rises above ~$90–100/barrel, the incentive to deploy spare capacity becomes strong. For spare capacity context, see our spare capacity glossary entry.

The 2026–2027 voluntary cut unwind

OPEC+ began gradually unwinding its voluntary production cuts in late 2025, with a planned monthly increase of approximately 180,000 barrels/day. Key milestones:

Full unwind of the 2.2 mb/d voluntary cuts (taken by 8 core OPEC+ members) planned over approximately 12–18 months from late 2025
The group has repeatedly paused or extended the unwind timetable when prices softened — demonstrating price-floor management
By end-2026, approximately 1.0–1.5 mb/d of the voluntary cuts had been returned to the market
For 2027: OPEC+ is expected to continue returning the remaining ~0.7–1.2 mb/d of voluntary cuts, subject to market conditions

Non-OPEC supply growth: the competitive constraint

OPEC+'s market management is constrained by rapidly growing non-OPEC supply:

USA: Permian Basin output at ~6.5–7.0 mb/d; total US production ~13–14 mb/d; growth moderating but still positive at ~200–300 kb/d/year
Brazil: Pre-salt deepwater growth adding ~100–200 kb/d/year through Buzios field expansions
Guyana: ExxonMobil-led Stabroek block ramping from ~650 kb/d (2025) to ~1.3 mb/d by 2027 — one of the fastest growing new oil provinces
Canada: Oil sands production steady at ~3.5 mb/d; Trans Mountain Expansion pipeline (TMX) enabling more Pacific Coast exports

If non-OPEC supply growth of ~1.5 mb/d/year outpaces demand growth of ~1.0 mb/d, OPEC+ faces a choice: absorb the surplus through slower unwind, or defend market share by unwinding faster and accepting lower prices.

2027 Brent crude price scenarios

Scenario	2027 avg Brent ($/bbl)	Pump price implication (EU)	Condition
Bearish (surplus market)	$60–70	€1.40–1.60/l petrol in France/Germany	OPEC+ unwinds fully; demand misses forecasts
Base case	$75–85	€1.65–1.85/l	Gradual unwind; demand meets IEA forecasts
Bullish (geopolitical)	$90–110	€1.90–2.15/l	Middle East disruption; OPEC+ pauses unwind
Extreme upside	$120+	€2.30+/l	Major supply disruption + demand surprise

Frequently asked questions

What is OPEC+ and how does it affect oil prices? OPEC+ is an alliance of 23 oil-producing countries (the 13 original OPEC members plus 10 non-OPEC allies led by Russia) controlling ~43% of global crude supply. The alliance coordinates production quotas to manage supply and support prices. Production cuts reduce global supply and push Brent crude higher; production increases soften prices. OPEC+ decisions directly affect petrol and diesel pump prices through their impact on crude oil costs.: OPEC+ is an alliance of 23 oil-producing countries (the 13 original OPEC members plus 10 non-OPEC allies led by Russia) controlling ~43% of global crude supply. The alliance coordinates production quotas to manage supply and support prices. Production cuts reduce global supply and push Brent crude higher; production increases soften prices. OPEC+ decisions directly affect petrol and diesel pump prices through their impact on crude oil costs.
What is OPEC+ spare capacity? Spare capacity is production OPEC+ could bring online within 30–90 days and sustain. In 2026, Saudi Arabia holds ~2.5–3 mb/d spare capacity — the world's largest. Total OPEC+ spare is ~4–5 mb/d. High spare capacity caps oil price spikes: if Brent rises sharply, Saudi Arabia and UAE can increase output. See our spare capacity glossary entry for more detail.: Spare capacity is production OPEC+ could bring online within 30–90 days and sustain. In 2026, Saudi Arabia holds ~2.5–3 mb/d spare capacity — the world's largest. Total OPEC+ spare is ~4–5 mb/d. High spare capacity caps oil price spikes: if Brent rises sharply, Saudi Arabia and UAE can increase output. See our spare capacity glossary entry for more detail.
How will OPEC+ production decisions affect fuel prices in 2027? OPEC+ plans to gradually unwind ~1.5–2 mb/d of voluntary cuts in 2026–2027. Combined with ~1.5 mb/d non-OPEC supply growth, if demand grows only ~1 mb/d the market moves into mild surplus — weighing on Brent crude. Base case is Brent at $75–85/barrel in 2027, equating to approximately €1.65–1.85/l petrol in major EU markets. Geopolitical disruptions or faster demand recovery could push to $90–110/bbl.: OPEC+ plans to gradually unwind ~1.5–2 mb/d of voluntary cuts in 2026–2027. Combined with ~1.5 mb/d non-OPEC supply growth, if demand grows only ~1 mb/d the market moves into mild surplus — weighing on Brent crude. Base case is Brent at $75–85/barrel in 2027, equating to approximately €1.65–1.85/l petrol in major EU markets. Geopolitical disruptions or faster demand recovery could push to $90–110/bbl.