Africa's Fuel Price Landscape
Africa hosts some of the world's most extreme fuel price disparities. In mid-2024, petrol prices across the continent ranged from near-zero in Libya (where subsidies absorb almost all cost) to over USD 2.00/litre in Malawi and Zimbabwe, where import costs, currency depreciation, and limited distribution infrastructure push prices above the global average. The IEA's Africa energy overview notes that the continent is home to 600 million people without electricity access — and an even larger population relying on liquid fuels for transport and cooking.
This diversity was front and centre at AEF 2024. The conference attracted energy ministers from over 30 African countries, alongside representatives from the African Development Bank (AfDB), the World Bank Africa region, and major international oil companies operating on the continent.
Nigeria's Subsidy Removal: One Year On
The most discussed single event in the run-up to AEF 2024 was Nigeria's May 2023 petrol subsidy removal — the biggest subsidy reform in sub-Saharan Africa in decades. Nigeria had spent an estimated USD 10 billion annually on petrol subsidies, funnelling cheap fuel to the country's 220 million people but also — as documented in our Africa fuel smuggling article — driving massive cross-border arbitrage that drained the subsidy budget to neighbouring countries.
One year after the removal, pump prices had risen from around NGN 185/litre to over NGN 700/litre. The Nigerian Bureau of Statistics reported that inflation reached 33% in early 2024, partly attributable to the pass-through from higher transport costs. AEF sessions examined the social protection mechanisms needed to make subsidy reform politically durable — a challenge other African nations considering similar reforms are watching closely.
The African Refining Gap
A recurring theme at AEF 2024 was Africa's dependence on imported refined products despite being home to significant crude oil reserves. The continent has only a handful of operational refineries, with most running well below capacity. Nigeria's Dangote Refinery — at 650,000 bbl/day capacity, the world's largest single-train refinery — was a major discussion point, having begun operations in early 2024.
Delegates noted that regional refining capacity could significantly reduce the import parity costs embedded in pump prices across West Africa. The AfDB's energy sector programme includes refinery investment as a component of energy security for net-importing African states. However, speakers cautioned that refinery investment requires stable feedstock supplies and pricing frameworks — precisely the environment that subsidy distortions undermine.
LPG (autogas and cooking gas) is central to Africa's clean cooking agenda — reducing reliance on biomass and charcoal. But LPG prices, which broadly track crude oil, rose sharply in 2022–2023. Several countries subsidise cooking LPG separately from transport fuels, creating complex multi-product subsidy structures. The World LPG Association tracks LPG access across the continent. For a primer on LPG pricing, see our LPG glossary entry.
Clean Energy Investment: The Financing Gap
The IEA Africa Energy Outlook 2022 estimated that Africa needs USD 25 billion annually in clean energy investment to meet its development and climate goals — but was attracting only about USD 2.5 billion per year. AEF 2024 sessions focused on closing this gap through:
- De-risking instruments: Guarantees and first-loss tranches from the AfDB and MIGA (World Bank Group) to attract private finance.
- Carbon market revenues: Article 6 of the Paris Agreement — voluntary carbon markets — as a supplementary finance stream, with Gold Standard and Verra providing certification frameworks.
- Just Energy Transition Partnerships (JETPs): South Africa's JETP (agreed at COP26) was cited as a potential model for other coal-dependent African economies.
The tension between energy access (which often means fossil fuels in the short term) and decarbonisation commitments was a defining theme. Many African delegates argued that the continent should not be held to the same transition timeline as developed economies that built their prosperity on cheap fossil fuels.
What AEF 2024 Signals for African Fuel Prices
The direction from AEF 2024 was clear: more subsidy reform is coming, but the pace and sequencing will vary by country. Countries with oil revenues (Nigeria, Angola, Libya, Gabon) face the hardest political economy — their populations expect a share of the resource wealth at the pump. Countries without oil (Kenya, Ethiopia, Tanzania) have less fiscal room to subsidise and have generally maintained more cost-reflective pricing.
In the medium term, expanded refining capacity — especially if the Dangote Refinery operates at scale — could reduce import-parity costs for West African countries. Carbon market revenues could partially offset subsidy withdrawal for vulnerable households. But pump price convergence toward cost-reflective levels across the continent will take years, not months.
Track current African fuel prices alongside global comparisons in our fuel price explorer, which covers 168 countries including all major African markets. For deeper context on how subsidies shape what you see in the data, see our fuel subsidy glossary entry.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Africa Energy Forum?
The Africa Energy Forum (AEF) is an annual event connecting African government officials, energy developers, investors, and financiers. Founded in 1999 and organised by EnergyNet, it is the continent's largest dedicated energy investment conference.
Why do fuel prices vary so much across African countries?
African fuel prices are shaped by local crude production, subsidy policies, currency strength, and logistics costs. Countries like Libya and Nigeria have historically subsidised fuel heavily, while others like Zimbabwe and Malawi price at or above import-parity cost. The IEA Africa energy overview provides country-level context.
How does Nigeria's subsidy removal affect other African countries?
Nigeria's May 2023 petrol subsidy removal dramatically narrowed the price gap with its neighbours, which had driven extensive cross-border smuggling. Countries like Benin, Niger, and Cameroon saw informal fuel trade shrink. The IMF's Nigeria 2023 Article IV consultation covers the fiscal and economic effects.