ADIPEC 2023 — the energy of tomorrow debate: decarbonisation, LNG, and oil demand resilience

The IEA WEO 2023 controversy

The IEA World Energy Outlook 2023, released in October 2023, projected that global demand for all three fossil fuels — oil, gas, and coal — would peak before 2030 under the Stated Policies Scenario. This was the first time the IEA had made this claim, and it dominated the opening day of ADIPEC 2023.

OPEC Secretary-General Haitham Al Ghais responded directly at ADIPEC, calling the IEA's analysis "dangerous" and warning that its demand projections, if believed by investors, could trigger under-investment that would create a supply crunch and price spike — the very outcome most damaging to the energy transition. OPEC's own World Oil Outlook 2023, published the same month, projected oil demand growing to 116 mb/d by 2045, versus 101 mb/d in 2022.

The IEA-OPEC demand peak dispute is not merely academic — it directly shapes capital allocation in the industry and, through investment levels and spare capacity, affects the crude oil price that ultimately reaches your refinery gate and pump. For the spare capacity dimension, see our OPEC spare capacity article.

NOC decarbonisation pledges

A striking feature of ADIPEC 2023 was the volume of net-zero or low-carbon pledges from national oil companies — organisations that produce the fuels whose combustion drives most of the world's emissions. ADNOC reiterated its 2050 net-zero target and announced new carbon capture and storage capacity at its onshore operations. Saudi Aramco emphasised its industry-low carbon intensity (8.4 kg CO₂e/boe versus an industry average of ~17 kg CO₂e/boe) as a competitive differentiator.

Critics — including climate NGOs present at the parallel civil society track — argued these pledges covered only scope 1 and 2 emissions (from the companies' own operations) while ignoring scope 3 (the combustion of the oil and gas they sell, which represents over 85 % of lifecycle emissions). The distinction between operational decarbonisation and product lifecycle decarbonisation was a recurring point of contention. The IPCC AR6 Synthesis Report 2023 provided the science backdrop that framed many of these discussions.

LNG as transition fuel

With European gas demand still elevated post-Ukraine, the "gas as a transition fuel" argument attracted broad support at ADIPEC 2023. QatarEnergy's CEO Saad Al-Kaabi announced new long-term LNG agreements with European buyers, framing the expansions as essential energy security infrastructure. QatarEnergy is expanding LNG capacity from 77 mtpa to 126 mtpa by 2027.

The tension between this LNG expansion and the COP28 transition language was acknowledged in panel discussions. Shell's LNG Outlook 2023 was cited as supporting the case that demand for LNG would continue growing through the 2030s in Asia. For the more detailed LNG supply picture, see our Gastech 2023 coverage and the World Gas Conference 2024 article.

Upstream investment signals

Major upstream deals and project sanctions announced at or around ADIPEC 2023 included: ADNOC's award of concession expansions to TotalEnergies, BP, and Eni in its offshore block programme; Iraq's TotalEnergies-led Gas Growth Integrated Project (GGIP) reaching FID on its gas capture component; and Guyana-focused announcements from ExxonMobil and Hess (subsequently acquired by Chevron).

The IEA World Energy Investment 2023 estimated upstream oil and gas investment at USD 530 billion — recovering toward pre-pandemic levels but still below what OPEC argued was needed to prevent a medium-term supply deficit. The investment picture directly links to the long-run crude price and therefore to the Brent benchmark that flows into petrol and diesel prices worldwide.

Pre-COP28 positioning

With COP28 set to open in Dubai six weeks after ADIPEC 2023, the conference had an unusually explicit political dimension. The UAE's COP28 presidency — held by Sultan Al Jaber, who is simultaneously CEO of ADNOC — was under scrutiny from climate groups who argued a fossil fuel executive could not credibly lead climate negotiations. ADNOC representatives defended the appointment as proof that major producers were engaging constructively rather than blocking progress.

The outcome of COP28 Dubai — the "UAE Consensus" with its transition away from fossil fuels language — ultimately reflected a more ambitious agreement than many ADIPEC participants had expected. The contrast between the ADIPEC mood (cautious on transition pace) and the COP28 outcome (surprisingly strong transition language) highlighted how quickly the geopolitical and diplomatic dynamics can shift. See our COP28 Dubai coverage for full detail on the final agreement and its implications for fuel pricing.