World Gas Conference 2024 — demand outlook, LNG trade, and the hydrogen pivot in Washington

US LNG policy pause

The most politically charged backdrop to WGC 2024 was the US Department of Energy's January 2024 pause on new LNG export licence applications. The Biden administration stated it needed to update its public interest review methodology to account for climate, economic, and national security considerations.

For European buyers — particularly Germany, which had built four floating storage and regasification units (FSRUs) in record time after 2022 — the pause raised questions about supply security for the 2030s. German utility executives at WGC 2024 noted that their new import capacity would be stranded without contracted US supply, and that the pause was "the wrong signal at the wrong time." US producers, notably Venture Global and NextDecade, argued that final investment decisions on new trains were contingent on regulatory certainty.

The counterargument from climate groups at the conference was that the pause was overdue: the IEA NZE roadmap called for no new fossil fuel supply, and locking in new LNG capacity with 20-year contracts would undermine climate commitments. The EIA's weekly gas supply data contextualised just how much the US had grown: from near-zero LNG exports in 2015 to over 12 bcf/d in 2024.

The demand peak debate

Every major forecaster at WGC 2024 presented demand scenarios — and few agreed. The IEA's Gas Market Report Q1 2024 showed global gas demand essentially flat since 2021 in OECD economies, with growth coming almost entirely from non-OECD Asia. Under the IEA's APS, demand peaks before 2030; under the STEPS (Stated Policies Scenario), it grows to 2050.

The IGU's Global Gas Report 2024, released at the conference, took a more bullish view: gas demand growing to around 4 500 bcm by 2040, driven by industrial feedstock use, power generation in emerging markets, and CNG/LNG transport. The gap between IEA and IGU projections — roughly 20–30 % by 2040 — encapsulates the uncertainty facing capital allocation decisions in the industry.

Infrastructure and the hydrogen pivot

A centrepiece of WGC 2024 was the "Hydrogen Factbook" published by the IGU in collaboration with IRENA. It argued that existing gas infrastructure — an estimated USD 6–7 trillion of assets globally — represents a head start for hydrogen, since pipelines, storage caverns, and compressor stations can be repurposed or retrofitted with manageable cost, particularly for blending scenarios up to 20 % hydrogen by volume.

The European hydrogen backbone plan, outlined by representatives of ENTSOG, envisages converting 40 000 km of existing pipelines and building 28 000 km of new hydrogen pipelines by 2040. The economic case depends heavily on electrolyser cost trajectories and the availability of cheap renewable electricity — projections that remain highly uncertain.

For a detailed view of hydrogen vehicle economics at the pump, see our hydrogen fuel economics article.

Asia's growing appetite

Asian buyers — Japan, South Korea, China, India, and a growing list of Southeast Asian importers — represent the demand growth story for LNG through the 2030s. At WGC 2024, Japanese and South Korean utilities signalled that they would not sacrifice energy security for price, and were willing to sign 15–20 year supply agreements as long as flexibility provisions allowed volume adjustments.

China's role was discussed at length. After a demand slowdown in 2022–2023 that created oversupply in spot LNG markets (see our China fuel demand article), the consensus view at WGC 2024 was that Chinese gas demand would resume growth — but that China's aggressive domestic renewables buildout and pipeline gas from Russia and Central Asia would limit its LNG import need to 80–100 mtpa rather than the 150+ mtpa some had projected.

India was highlighted as the most significant growth market: the government's city gas distribution programme aimed to connect 630 districts to piped gas by 2030, and CNG station rollout was running ahead of schedule according to the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell.

Methane abatement commitments

The Global Methane Pledge — signed at COP26 and reiterated at COP28 — set a target of 30 % reduction in methane emissions from 2020 levels by 2030. At WGC 2024, the OGMP 2.0 programme reported over 130 member companies covering roughly 30 % of global oil and gas production, up from a dozen founding signatories in 2017.

The US EPA's Methane Waste Prevention Rule (finalised March 2024) set binding emissions limits on US operators — the first federal regulation to do so. Industry representatives at WGC 2024 generally welcomed the regulatory clarity but raised concerns about monitoring costs for smaller operators and the implications for US LNG's carbon intensity certification under EU import rules.