IP Week 2024 — oil market outlook, energy transition financing, and geopolitical risk in London
IP Week 2024 convened in London as the global oil market wrestled with OPEC+ cut extensions, thinning spare capacity, and a growing divergence between European majors pivoting toward renewables and US peers doubling down on upstream oil and gas.
Crude price outlook
IP Week 2024 opened with Brent crude trading in the USD 80–85/bbl range — well above the lows of 2020 but below the 2022 peak of USD 127/bbl. Trading house views were broadly clustered around a USD 75–90/bbl range for 2024–2025, underpinned by Saudi Arabia's commitment to production restraint and offset by expectations of growing non-OPEC supply from the US, Brazil, Guyana, and Kazakhstan.
Vitol, the world's largest independent oil trader, presented analysis suggesting that the market's main risk was to the downside in 2025–2026 as OPEC+ cuts became harder to sustain: members facing fiscal pressures (Iraq, Nigeria, Angola — which had already left OPEC in January 2024) would be tempted to overproduce, eventually forcing a price-war-style recalibration.
Trafigura took a more bullish view, arguing that structural under-investment in upstream since 2015 had created a medium-term supply deficit that would manifest by 2026–2027 as existing fields declined and insufficient new capacity had been sanctioned. For the spare capacity dimension of this debate, see our OPEC spare capacity article.
The IEA Oil Market Report (February 2024) provided the data backdrop for many panel discussions, projecting demand growth of 1.2 mb/d in 2024 — below the post-COVID bounce years but still positive.
Upstream investment debate
One of IP Week's recurring themes is whether the industry is investing enough to maintain supply. In 2024 the answer — depending on the scenario — ranged from "yes, for an energy transition world" to "emphatically no, for continued demand growth."
The IEA World Energy Investment 2024 estimated total upstream oil and gas investment at approximately USD 570 billion in 2024 — near the 2019 pre-COVID level but below the 2014 peak of USD 780 billion in real terms. A session moderated by Wood Mackenzie noted that the concentration of new upstream investment in a handful of low-cost basins (Saudi Arabia, UAE, US Permian, Guyana) was creating geographic fragility: a disruption in any one of them would have outsized market impact because alternatives are few and slow.
How oil majors are diverging
The strategic divergence between European and US oil majors — which had been building since 2020 — was sharply on display at IP Week 2024. Shell and TotalEnergies presented integrated energy transition strategies with significant renewable and low-carbon investments. BP, under pressure from activist investors, had already moderated its renewable pivot and was re-emphasising upstream oil and gas returns.
US majors ExxonMobil and Chevron — both represented at IP Week through their London offices and trading operations — were unapologetically focused on long-cycle upstream investment in Guyana, the Permian, and LNG. ExxonMobil's acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources (announced 2023, completed April 2024) for USD 60 billion was the clearest signal of conviction in continued oil demand.
The divergence creates a direct consequence for the refinery gate price: European majors rationalising refinery capacity (TotalEnergies converting La Mède to biorefinery; Shell shutting Rhineland units) while Asian and Middle Eastern capacity grows, reshaping the global refining map over the next decade.
Carbon pricing and investment
The EU ETS carbon price — around EUR 55–65/tonne CO₂ at the time of IP Week 2024, down from a peak of EUR 100 in early 2023 — was a recurring reference point. European refiners and producers face a carbon cost that their Asian and US competitors largely do not, creating a competitiveness concern that several speakers argued was accelerating the shift of downstream investment out of Europe.
A panel on EU ETS2 (covering transport fuels from 2027) debated its likely price trajectory. With a price corridor of EUR 45–65/tonne at launch rising to a market-determined level, the transport fuel sector faces a new cost layer that will show up directly in petrol and diesel prices — see our carbon tax on fuel article for the detailed per-litre calculation, and our carbon tax glossary entry for the mechanics.
Geopolitical risk premium
IP Week 2024 took place against a backdrop of escalating Red Sea shipping disruptions (Houthi attacks on tankers had begun in late 2023), continued Russia-Ukraine conflict affecting energy markets, and Middle East tensions following the October 2023 Hamas attack on Israel. The IEA's energy security framework featured prominently in panel discussions.
Shipping costs for crude and refined products from the Middle East to Europe had risen 50–100 % as tankers rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope instead of the Suez Canal. This added roughly USD 2–4/bbl to European import costs — a temporary but significant factor in European fuel pricing at the time. The episode underlined how shipping route disruption can feed directly into pump prices independently of crude oil fundamentals. For the broader geopolitical energy price story, see our Russia–Ukraine fuel prices article.
Frequently asked questions
What is IP Week?
IP Week (International Petroleum Week) is an annual conference in London organised by the Energy Institute. One of the oldest gatherings in the global oil industry, it draws executives from IOCs, national oil companies, trading houses, banks, and government agencies.
What were the main themes at IP Week 2024?
The crude price outlook amid OPEC+ cut extensions, upstream investment adequacy, diverging strategies of European vs US oil majors on energy transition, carbon pricing, and geopolitical risk from Red Sea shipping disruptions.
What did IP Week 2024 say about oil demand peak?
Opinions diverged sharply. The IEA reiterated that demand would peak before 2030. Saudi Aramco's CEO argued demand would not peak this decade. Most trading houses positioned for range-bound demand through the late 2020s.
How does IP Week relate to fuel prices?
IP Week brings together the organisations that set crude prices, run refineries, trade refined products, and advise governments. Signals on investment levels, demand outlook, and geopolitical risk directly influence the crude price forecasts that eventually show up in petrol and diesel prices.