Energy policy 14–18 Oct 2024 Brussels, Belgium

EU Energy Week 2024

REPowerEU Progress, ETS2 Carbon Pricing, and the Path to Fossil-Fuel Subsidy Phase-Down

What is EU Energy Week?

EU Energy Week is the annual flagship event of the European Commission's Directorate-General for Energy. It brings together EU energy ministers, European Parliament members, national regulators, industry representatives, and civil society to review progress on the EU's energy legislation and discuss the regulatory pipeline. Unlike closed ministerial formats, many sessions are public and streamed online, making it a primary source for understanding where EU energy policy is heading.

The 2024 edition took place against the backdrop of the EU's third winter post-Ukraine invasion, with gas storage at record-high levels but underlying questions about long-term LNG dependency, industrial competitiveness (intensified by the Draghi report on EU competitiveness published weeks earlier), and the timeline for ETS2 implementation.

Theme
Key question
Relevance to pump prices
REPowerEU delivery
Is the EU on track to end Russian fossil fuel dependency?
LNG import costs feed into gas-linked fuel prices in some member states
ETS2 readiness
Are fuel distributors and member states prepared for 2027?
ETS2 adds 10–15 ct/L to petrol and diesel at the pump from 2027
Energy Taxation Directive
Can member states agree on a reform still blocked in Council?
Removes exemptions that allow some diesel to be taxed below petrol
Subsidy phase-down
Which member states have committed to timelines for removal?
Subsidy removal raises pump prices directly in countries still using them
Social Climate Fund
How will ETS2 revenues be recycled to vulnerable households?
Determines political feasibility of the carbon price adding to pump costs

REPowerEU at Year Two: What Changed

Launched in May 2022 in direct response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, REPowerEU had two core ambitions: end the EU's dependence on Russian fossil fuels by 2027 and accelerate the clean energy transition. By October 2024, the headline numbers were mixed but broadly positive on the security side.

  • Russian pipeline gas imports fell to roughly 15 bcm in 2023 from 155 bcm in 2021 — a drop of over 90%.
  • EU LNG import capacity expanded significantly, with new floating storage and regasification units deployed in Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Finland.
  • EU gas storage entered winter 2024 above 94% capacity, compared with emergency levels in 2022.
  • Solar PV additions reached a record in 2023 and were tracking ahead of plan in 2024.

The less comfortable picture was on industrial energy costs. With European wholesale gas prices settling at EUR 35–45/MWh — well above the pre-2022 average of EUR 15–25/MWh but far below the 2022 spike near EUR 300/MWh — energy-intensive industries continued to face a structural cost disadvantage versus the US, where the Henry Hub gas benchmark traded at under USD 2/MMBtu. The Draghi competitiveness report, referenced heavily in Energy Week sessions, framed this as a long-term structural challenge rather than a temporary distortion.

For pump prices, REPowerEU's most direct impact has been through LNG price dynamics in Europe. Countries that use gas for district heating often see heating fuel prices move with TTF, and in some member states gas is also used in CNG vehicles — linking TTF directly to what drivers pay.

ETS2: The Carbon Price Clock Is Ticking

The most technically dense sessions at EU Energy Week 2024 centred on the EU Emissions Trading System 2 (ETS2), which from 2027 will apply a carbon price to the combustion of road-transport fuels and building heating fuels. Unlike ETS1 (which covers power generation and heavy industry), ETS2 targets fuel distributors, meaning the cost is expected to pass through to pump prices.

The European Commission's modelling — referenced in sessions by DG Climate Action officials — puts the ETS2 carbon price in a range of EUR 45–65/tonne CO₂ once fully operational, subject to the emergency ceiling of EUR 45/tonne that applies until 2030 if prices spike. At EUR 45/tonne, the additional pump-price impact is approximately:

Fuel
CO₂ per litre (kg)
Cost at EUR 45/t
Cost at EUR 65/t
Petrol
2.31
+10.4 ct/L
+15.0 ct/L
Diesel
2.67
+12.0 ct/L
+17.4 ct/L
LPG (autogas)
1.63
+7.3 ct/L
+10.6 ct/L

These figures are additive on top of existing excise duty and national carbon taxes. Countries that already apply a carbon tax (Finland, Sweden, Switzerland) may offset part of the ETS2 cost against existing levies to avoid double-counting, but the Commission confirmed this decision rests with member states.

The EU ETS2 and national carbon pricing piece on this site covers the full mechanism and how different member states are approaching the transition. In brief: for drivers, ETS2 is a structural upward step in pump prices across all EU member states, with the quantum varying by fuel type and whether a member state decides to simultaneously reduce excise duty.

The Energy Taxation Directive: Still Stuck in Council

The revised Energy Taxation Directive (ETD) — the Commission's proposal to align energy taxes with carbon content and phase out exemptions, including the longstanding reduced rate on road diesel and the jet fuel exemption for domestic flights — remained blocked in Council at the time of EU Energy Week 2024, requiring unanimity among all 27 member states.

The core controversy is the diesel-petrol differential. Under current EU rules, minimum excise duty on diesel (EUR 0.330/L) is lower than on petrol (EUR 0.359/L), a legacy of 1990s industrial and agricultural lobbying. The Commission's proposed reform would equalise these rates over a ten-year phase-in period. Eastern European member states with high diesel car shares and road-freight dependency pushed back strongly.

At Energy Week, the Commission outlined a possible compromise: a slower phase-in timetable paired with hardship provisions for member states with lower GDP per capita. This framing echoed the approach taken with the Clean Energy Ministerial 2024, where a just-transition narrative was central to securing consensus on more ambitious targets. Whether this is sufficient to break the Council deadlock was left open.

For a full analysis of how the ETD fits into European pump price structures, see our article on EU energy tax reform and pump prices.

Fossil-Fuel Subsidies: Mapping What Remains

One of the more politically charged sessions at EU Energy Week 2024 examined the state of fossil-fuel subsidies in EU member states. A joint European Environment Agency–Commission exercise mapped subsidies using three definitions: explicit subsidies (direct transfers and tax expenditures below the standard VAT rate), implicit subsidies (pricing below social cost, including unpriced carbon), and crisis-era emergency subsidies introduced post-2022.

Key findings:

  • Explicit fossil-fuel subsidies in the EU totalled an estimated EUR 64–99 billion in 2022, the high range including crisis relief measures.
  • Emergency measures — fuel VAT cuts, excise duty suspensions, and pump-price caps — cost member states a combined EUR 60+ billion in 2022–2023, most of which was unwound by mid-2024.
  • Structural subsidies — reduced rates for road diesel, agricultural fuel rebates, and below-VAT rates on heating fuels — remained largely intact across the majority of member states.
  • The Social Climate Fund (EUR 86.7 billion over 2026–2032) is designed to offset ETS2's distributional impact, channelled through member-state programmes to vulnerable households and small businesses.

For a broader comparison of subsidy reform dynamics globally — including Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America — our Asia subsidy reform coverage and Middle East fuel prices article provide useful counterpoints to the EU's relatively structured approach.

Subsidies keep pump prices artificially low relative to their full cost. The EU's gradual removal of these through ETS2 and ETD reform means that European pump prices are on a structurally upward path from policy alone, even if crude oil prices remain flat. Understanding what a fuel subsidy is and what feeds into the pump price is essential context for reading EU energy week outputs.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is EU Energy Week?

EU Energy Week is the European Commission's annual flagship event on energy policy, organised by DG Energy. It brings together ministers, regulators, industry, and civil society to review progress on EU energy law and discuss upcoming regulatory changes. Sessions are open to the public and streamed online.

What is EU ETS2 and how does it affect pump prices?

EU ETS2 is the second European Emissions Trading System, which will apply a carbon price to road transport and building heating fuels from 2027 (subject to an emergency cap at EUR 45/tonne until 2030). At an illustrative EUR 45/tonne CO₂, the additional cost for petrol is around 10–11 cents per litre and for diesel around 12 cents, on top of existing excise duty and carbon taxes.

Which EU countries still subsidise fossil fuels?

According to the IMF and European Commission estimates discussed at EU Energy Week 2024, all EU member states implicitly subsidise fossil fuels through below-social-cost pricing. Explicit producer or consumer subsidies (reduced VAT on fuel, road diesel rebates, fuel allowances) remain in the majority of member states. The revised Energy Taxation Directive aims to remove tax exemptions that act as implicit subsidies.

What is REPowerEU and is it on track?

REPowerEU is the European Commission's plan, launched in May 2022 after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, to end EU dependence on Russian fossil fuels, accelerate renewables, and improve energy efficiency. As of October 2024, the EU had met its gas storage targets and reduced Russian pipeline gas imports by more than 80% from 2021 levels, though LNG imports and renewable deployment timelines remain mixed across member states.

How does EU carbon pricing connect to what drivers pay at the pump?

EU member states already apply national carbon taxes on transport fuels (alongside excise duty), but the rate and coverage vary widely. ETS2 from 2027 will add a uniform EU-wide carbon price on top of national carbon taxes where they exist, meaning the total carbon cost in the pump price will rise in virtually every EU country. Higher-carbon fuels (diesel and LPG) will carry proportionally larger increases than petrol.